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Picks for Friday 6 November 2026 · Nairobi time

← Today’s picks

Friday 6 November 2026

No picks were posted on this day.
Checked the Premier League, LaLiga, Serie A, Bundesliga and Ligue 1 (no Champions League or Europa League games fall on a Friday); only five matches were on and in each one the fair, margin-free probability either missed the 55% floor or the edge over the bookmaker's own price missed our 4-point bar even after weighing confirmed injury news, so no slips today.

The matches we studied that day

The odds as they stood, what they imply once the bookmaker’s margin is taken out, and why each match was backed or skipped.

Everton v Coventry CityNo betEngland · Premier League · 23:00 EAT
Everton
1.70Draw
4.00Coventry City
4.75

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 56% / 24% / 20% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Everton won their last two games without Jack Grealish (disciplinary)
  • Coventry missing both regular centre-backs Thomas and Woolfenden plus striker Haji Wright and midfielder Eccles

Everton's fair win probability clears 55% but the edge over the bookmaker's own 1.70 price isn't wide enough to justify a pick without stretching the injury evidence.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Everton v Coventry City →

Hamburg SV v Borussia MönchengladbachNo betGermany · Bundesliga · 22:30 EAT
Hamburg SV
2.40Draw
3.60Borussia Mönchengladbach
2.70

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 39% / 26% / 35% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Hamburg's form is W-W-L-L-L, Gladbach's is L-L-W-W-D
  • Hamburg missing five players (incl. suspended Vuskovic); Gladbach missing eight through injury

A genuinely open three-way match — no outcome's fair probability is remotely close to our 55% floor.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Hamburg SV v Borussia Mönchengladbach →

Sevilla v Deportivo AlavésNo betSpain · LaLiga · 23:00 EAT
Sevilla
1.95Draw
3.50Deportivo Alavés
4.15

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 49% / 28% / 23% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Alavés are winless in four of their last five (D-L-L-D-L) with two players out long-term on ACL injuries
  • Sevilla missing Peque Fernández and Miguel Sierra, with Manu Bueno suspended and Marcão/Isaac Romero doubtful

Sevilla are sensible favourites but their own injury list offsets Alavés' poor form, keeping the fair probability under 55%.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Sevilla v Deportivo Alavés →

Venezia v UdineseNo betItaly · Serie A · 22:45 EAT
Venezia
2.15Draw
3.75Udinese
3.10

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 44% / 25% / 31% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Venezia have won once in their last 11 league games; Udinese have one win in nine and are on an eight-game winless run
  • Both sides also report four injury absentees apiece

Two out-of-form sides with no outcome reaching our 55% threshold even before any adjustment.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Venezia v Udinese →

Toulouse v StrasbourgNo betFrance · Ligue 1 · 22:45 EAT
Toulouse
2.05Draw
3.80Strasbourg
3.30

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 46% / 25% / 29% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Toulouse have failed to score in back-to-back league games after a five-match unbeaten run
  • Strasbourg are on a four-match losing streak with Panichelli (ACL) and others sidelined

Toulouse are favourites but their fair probability tops out around 46%, short of the 55% bar we require before even weighing the market edge.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Toulouse v Strasbourg →

← Thu 5 Nov

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