Tabiri.

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 48% / 26% / 26% for home win, draw and away win.

• Tottenham have not scored in any of their four league games; Aston Villa have one goal in four.
• Both clubs sit in the bottom four of the league for expected goals created.
• Villa are without Onana, Goretzka, Maatsen and Pau Torres, and first-choice keeper Bizot is injured.
• Spurs lost 1-3 at Liverpool in the cup on Tuesday and now face the earliest kickoff of the weekend.

Our bet is Under 2.5 goals at 2.00 — the Leo single 2 slip. Both defences leak badly, which is why we have this at 55% rather than higher.

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 40% / 29% / 32% for home win, draw and away win.

• El Sadar has produced three goals across Osasuna's three home games: 0-0, 1-0 and 0-2.
• Five of the last six meetings in Pamplona finished under 2.5 goals.
• Rayo have had both teams score in all six of their matches, and Camello has six goals in six.
• Osasuna rested six regulars in the 0-4 at Atletico, so Budimir, Moncayola and Ruben Garcia return fresh.

We mildly prefer Under 2.5 at 1.80, but Rayo's scoring run pulls the other way. Posted as a lean, not a value pick.

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 20% / 24% / 56% for home win, draw and away win.

• Brighton are missing Minteh, Mitoma, Tzimas and Ferguson — their entire first-choice wide attack.
• Arsenal have conceded one goal in four league games, kept three clean sheets, and rested six starters in midweek.
• Arsenal's own defence is thin: Saliba, Mosquera and Hincapie are out and Ben White is a serious doubt.

Arsenal are the right favourite, but 1.68 already prices Brighton's injuries, and an independent model lands within a point of the market. No bet.

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 52% / 25% / 22% for home win, draw and away win.

• Ipswich's four league games have produced 17 goals, and both teams have scored in five of their six matches.
• Everton are unbeaten with four clean sheets in six, and have drawn three of their four league games.
• Ipswich have conceded 10 goals against roughly 7 expected, so their defence has been unlucky rather than broken.

Everton's clean sheets and Ipswich's goal-fests point in opposite directions, and the goals market already leans to Over. Nothing clears our margin. No bet.

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 59% / 22% / 19% for home win, draw and away win.

• Newcastle are bottom of the league on expected goal difference and have gone 14 home games without a clean sheet.
• They have eight players out, including top scorer Osula; Elanga and Dedic were confirmed out on Friday.
• Hull have conceded only two goals against roughly six expected, so their record is likely to get worse, not better.

Newcastle at 1.60 is priced off results their underlying numbers do not support. We would not back them, and Hull are too long a shot to post. No bet.

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 57% / 25% / 18% for home win, draw and away win.

• Alavés lost both first-choice centre-backs, Garcés and Mikel Rodríguez, to knee ligament injuries this month.
• Alavés have three wins from three at home but one point and two goals from two away games.
• Athletic's midweek trip to Levante was rained off, so they have seven days' rest to Alavés' four.
• Athletic are missing Guruzeta and Vivian, and Iñaki Williams' ankle is unresolved.

The rest edge and Alavés' defensive injuries are real, but Athletic's own absences mean 1.63 is about right. A lean, not a value pick.

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 53% / 24% / 23% for home win, draw and away win.

• Celta have scored three goals in six league games and are winless in eight across all competitions.
• Celta's home record is worse than their away one: one point from three at Balaídos, three draws from three on the road.
• Celta flew to Cyprus on Wednesday for a Europa League defeat; Racing lost 7-2 at Barcelona the same night.

The market's Over 2.5 price is built on Racing's leaky defence rather than on Celta, who cannot score. Not confident enough either way. No bet.

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 58% / 24% / 18% for home win, draw and away win.

• Coventry are bottom with no goals and no points from four games, and 10 conceded.
• Coventry played an EFL Cup tie on Wednesday and are without the suspended Awoniyi plus five injured players.
• Forest have had a full week off and their expected points exceed the five they have actually collected.
• Forest have not scored in either of their two home league games this season.

Forest's rest and depth advantage is genuine, but their blank home record keeps our estimate level with the price. A lean on Forest.

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 9% / 13% / 78% for home win, draw and away win.

• Barcelona have won all six league games and scored 28 goals, including 7-2 against Racing Santander.
• Barcelona keeper Joan García is a major doubt with a knee injury, so Szczesny may start.
• Sevilla sit fourth on 13 points, but their leading scorer has just two goals all season.

Barcelona at 1.21 is below our 1.30 minimum and there is nothing playable on the Sevilla side. No bet.