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Picks for Thursday 24 September 2026 · Nairobi time

← Today’s picks

Thursday 24 September 2026

Result: 1 of 1 slips won.

Leo single

1 selection · first kickoff 21:45 EATAI pick

Total odds1.73
SportyBet booking codeWon
4LRRNJ
Open on SportyBet ↗
  1. International · Nations League · 21:45 EAT
    Norway v Denmark3-2
    1X2Norway
    AI 62% · odds imply 58%+4 edge

    Norway went 8-0 in WC qualifying scoring 37 goals, Haaland got 16; Denmark missing Christensen, Bah and Dolberg (knee, injured in camp this week).

    1.73Won
KSh 100 stake returns KSh 173 if it wins

Norway are the form team in Europe and Denmark arrive shorn of three key players.

The matches we studied that day

The odds as they stood, what they imply once the bookmaker’s margin is taken out, and why each match was backed or skipped.

Andorra v MaltaNo betInternational · Nations League · 19:00 EAT
Andorra
3.60Draw
2.87Malta
2.40

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 27% / 33% / 40% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Malta average 1.0 goal per game vs Andorra's 0.4
  • 8 of Malta's and 8 of Andorra's last 10 games went under 2.5 goals

Malta are favoured but not strongly enough, and the low-scoring trend keeps the win price short of value.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Andorra v Malta →

Portugal v WalesNo betInternational · Nations League · 21:45 EAT
Portugal
1.25Draw
6.50Wales
13.00

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 78% / 15% / 8% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Portugal are reigning Nations League champions
  • New head coach Jorge Jesus takes his first competitive match
  • Wales won League B last edition and move up to League A

Portugal are overwhelming favourites but the price is under the 1.30 floor so no market here qualifies.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Portugal v Wales →

Norway v DenmarkValue pickInternational · Nations League · 21:45 EAT
Norway
1.73Draw
4.10Denmark
4.33

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 55% / 23% / 22% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Norway went a perfect 8-0 in World Cup qualifying, scoring 37 goals
  • Haaland scored 16 qualifying goals, double the next best in Europe
  • Denmark missing Andreas Christensen (thigh), Alexander Bah and Kasper Dolberg (knee injury sustained in camp)

Home favourites already priced fairly, but the scale of Norway's form and Denmark's absentees pushes the win past our value bar.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Norway v Denmark →

Serbia v GreeceNo betInternational · Nations League · 21:45 EAT
Serbia
2.66Draw
3.40Greece
2.88

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 37% / 29% / 34% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Under 2.5 goals is favoured in the market (-137)
  • Both teams open their League A campaign against evenly matched opposition

A tight three-way market with no outcome close to clearing the 55% bar.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Serbia v Greece →

Kosovo v Republic of IrelandNo betInternational · Nations League · 21:45 EAT
Kosovo
2.38Draw
3.20Republic of Ireland
2.75

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 38% / 29% / 33% for home win, draw and away win.

  • First-ever competitive meeting between the two sides
  • Opening match of League B Group 3

Kosovo are slight favourites at home but with no history between the sides there isn't enough edge to back.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Kosovo v Republic of Ireland →

Austria v IsraelLeanInternational · Nations League · 21:45 EAT
Austria
1.42Draw
4.75Israel
6.50

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 66% / 20% / 14% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Austria heavy home favourites over lower-ranked Israel
  • Over 2.5 goals is the favoured goals market

Market already prices Austria close to fair value, so the short odds leave no margin for a qualifying pick.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Austria v Israel →

Liechtenstein v LithuaniaNo betInternational · Nations League · 21:45 EAT
Liechtenstein
11.00Draw
4.75Lithuania
1.30

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 9% / 20% / 72% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Liechtenstein have failed to score in their last three head-to-head meetings
  • Lithuania's last six wins over this opponent have all finished under 2.5 goals

Lithuania are correctly priced as heavy favourites so there is no gap between fair odds and the market price.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Liechtenstein v Lithuania →

Netherlands v GermanyNo betInternational · Nations League · 21:45 EAT
Netherlands
2.44Draw
3.83Germany
2.79

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 40% / 25% / 35% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Both teams to score is heavily favoured (-238) in a classic rivalry fixture
  • Netherlands and Germany are closely matched in the odds

An even three-way market with no selection reaching the required probability edge.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Netherlands v Germany →

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