Tabiri.

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 62% / 21% / 17% for home win, draw and away win.

• Sweden lost their last match 3-0 to France with only 39% possession
• Romania lost 1-0 to Turkey in their last outing, no shots on goal

Sweden are fair favorites but the 1.48 price already reflects that; the edge needed over the market (~5.5pp short even at max adjustment) is not there, and Sweden's heavy recent loss argues against boosting confidence further.

Full write-up: Sweden v Romania →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 55% / 25% / 20% for home win, draw and away win.

• Poland unbeaten in last 4 h2h meetings (3W,1D) with Lewandowski, Zielinski, Szymanski available
• Bosnia have lost just 2 of their last 12 games

Poland's fair probability barely clears 55% but the market's own implied probability (60.6%) is already higher, leaving no genuine edge to bet on.

Full write-up: Poland v Bosnia-Herzegovina →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 13% / 19% / 68% for home win, draw and away win.

• France won 8 of last 10 games, averaging 2.7 goals scored, under new coach Zidane
• Turkey lost just 3 of their last 20 home games across all competitions

France are fairly priced favorites; even a maximum evidence-based adjustment does not close the gap to the market's own implied probability, so no value is confirmed.

Full write-up: Turkey v France →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 43% / 27% / 30% for home win, draw and away win.

• Italy drew 1-1 with Bosnia last time out under new boss Roberto Mancini
• Belgium lost 2-1 to Spain in their last game under new coach Mark van Bommel

An open three-way match with no side above the 55% floor required to qualify a pick.

Full write-up: Italy v Belgium →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 43% / 29% / 28% for home win, draw and away win.

• Hungary missing Barnabas Varga and Roland Sallai through injury
• Ukraine missing Mudryk, Zinchenko, Dovbyk and Yarmolyuk, under new coach Andrea Maldera

Hungary are favorites but well short of the 55% qualifying floor once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Full write-up: Hungary v Ukraine →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 50% / 28% / 22% for home win, draw and away win.

• Georgia unbeaten in 2026 (W2,D2) but have not scored before half-time in their last 5 NL fixtures
• Northern Ireland have lost 6 of their last 8 away games and not kept a clean sheet in 10 away outings

Georgia's fair probability sits just under the 55% floor needed to qualify, despite being clear favorites.

Full write-up: Georgia v Northern Ireland →