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Picks for Saturday 26 September 2026 · Nairobi time

← Today’s picks

Saturday 26 September 2026

No picks were posted on this day.
Premier League, LaLiga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Champions League and Europa League are all paused this weekend for the FIFA international window (Premier League resumes 10 October), so today's card is UEFA Nations League matchday 1. Every heavy favourite checked had a margin-free fair probability that was actually lower than its own odds-implied probability (no edge), and every closer match'

The matches we studied that day

The odds as they stood, what they imply once the bookmaker’s margin is taken out, and why each match was backed or skipped.

England v SpainNo betUEFA · Nations League A · 21:45 EAT
England
3.03Draw
3.57Spain
2.44

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 32% / 27% / 41% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Spain unbeaten in 38 games and fresh off winning the World Cup
  • England missing Rice, Rashford, Stones, Livramento and Burn
  • Spain missing suspended Gavi plus Garcia and Porro

Spain's fair win probability (~41%) is well short of the 55% floor even after allowing for England's injury list, so this is a lean at best, not a pick.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: England v Spain →

Czechia v CroatiaNo betUEFA · Nations League A · 21:45 EAT
Czechia
3.30Draw
3.55Croatia
2.07

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 28% / 26% / 46% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Czechia winless in their last 3 competitive matches
  • Croatia won 5 of their last 6 competitive games and are unbeaten in the last 3 meetings

Croatia's form edge is real but their fair probability (~46%) still falls under the 55% qualifying line.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Czechia v Croatia →

Bulgaria v LuxembourgNo betUEFA · Nations League C · 19:00 EAT
Bulgaria
2.26Draw
3.06Luxembourg
3.28

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 41% / 30% / 29% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Bulgaria host at Hristo Botev Stadium, Plovdiv, as market favourites

No side's fair probability reaches 55%, so no qualifying selection here.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Bulgaria v Luxembourg →

North Macedonia v SwitzerlandNo betUEFA · Nations League B · 21:45 EAT
North Macedonia
7.75Draw
4.85Switzerland
1.44

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 13% / 20% / 67% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Switzerland reached the 2026 World Cup quarter-finals but travel without suspended captain-class midfielder Granit Xhaka
  • North Macedonia are winless in 7 but unbeaten in 9 competitive games at home

Switzerland clear 55% on fair probability (~67%) but the bookmaker margin means their implied probability from the odds is already higher, leaving no positive edge.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: North Macedonia v Switzerland →

Faroe Islands v KazakhstanNo betUEFA · Nations League C · 19:00 EAT
Faroe Islands
2.30Draw
3.05Kazakhstan
3.35

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 41% / 31% / 28% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Faroe Islands have won their last 2 home games
  • Kazakhstan have lost 7 of their last 10 away matches

Home fair probability (~41%) stays under the 55% threshold despite the favourable home form.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Faroe Islands v Kazakhstan →

Slovenia v ScotlandNo betUEFA · Nations League B · 16:00 EAT
Slovenia
2.61Draw
3.22Scotland
2.97

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 37% / 30% / 33% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Slovenia missing defenders Bajric and Ratnik through injury
  • Scotland missing McTominay, Tierney and Shankland under new manager Pocognoli

A three-way split with no side above 37% fair probability and Slovenia's odds (2.61) also sit just outside the allowed range.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Slovenia v Scotland →

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