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Picks for Tuesday 29 September 2026 · Nairobi time

← Today’s picks

Tuesday 29 September 2026

No picks were posted on this day.
The Premier League, LaLiga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Champions League and Europa League are all paused for the FIFA international window (21 Sep–6 Oct 2026), so today's only action was UEFA Nations League matchday 2. Checking the clearest fixtures (Czechia-England, Spain-Croatia, Slovenia-North Macedonia), every favourite's de-vigged fair probability came in below its raw market-implied price

The matches we studied that day

The odds as they stood, what they imply once the bookmaker’s margin is taken out, and why each match was backed or skipped.

Czechia v EnglandLeanInternational · Nations League · 21:45 EAT
Czechia
9.50Draw
5.25England
1.30

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 10% / 18% / 72% for home win, draw and away win.

  • England beat Spain 2-1 at halftime before losing 3-2 on 26 Sep, so form is mixed
  • England missing Cole Palmer, Declan Rice, Marcus Rashford, Tino Livramento and Kobbie Mainoo through injury
  • Czechia lost 2-1 to Croatia on 26 Sep and are missing several players including David Zima and David Jurásek

England are priced around 1.30 (about 77% implied), but stripping the bookmaker margin drops their fair win chance to roughly 72%, below the raw implied figure, so there is no verified edge despite England being the stronger side.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Czechia v England →

Spain v CroatiaNo betInternational · Nations League · 21:45 EAT
Spain
1.30Draw
6.01Croatia
11.60

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 75% / 17% / 8% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Spain beat England 3-2 away in their last Nations League outing
  • Spain have 8 wins and 2 draws in their last 10 matches
  • Croatia are 5W-4L-1D in their last 10 away matches

Spain are prohibitive favourites; odds quotes varied sharply across bookmakers (1.17 to 1.30), which undermines confidence in a stable market price, and even at the higher quote the fair probability sits below the implied one.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Spain v Croatia →

Slovenia v North MacedoniaLeanInternational · Nations League · 21:45 EAT
Slovenia
1.65Draw
3.70North Macedonia
5.90

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 58% / 26% / 16% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Slovenia opened with a 0-0 draw away to Scotland
  • North Macedonia were beaten 3-0 by Switzerland in their opener
  • North Macedonia have struggled for form over recent matches

Slovenia's fair win probability (~58%) clears the 55% bar, but the gap to the market-implied price (~61%) is negative before any adjustment, and the evidence available is not strong enough to responsibly add the 6-7 points needed to create a genuine edge.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Slovenia v North Macedonia →

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