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Picks for Monday 28 September 2026 · Nairobi time

Monday 28 September 2026

No picks were posted on this day.
None of the seven target club competitions play today because the Premier League, LaLiga, Serie A, Bundesliga and Ligue 1 are all inside a merged international break (21 Sep-6 Oct 2026, Premier League resumes 10 October) and there are no Champions League or Europa League rounds this week either. We checked UEFA Nations League matchday-2 fixtures instead, but every match was priced close to even (f

The matches we studied that day

The odds as they stood, what they imply once the bookmaker’s margin is taken out, and why each match was backed or skipped.

Belgium v FranceNo betInternational · Nations League · 21:45 EAT

Belgium
3.70Draw
3.80France
1.87

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 25% / 25% / 50% for home win, draw and away win.

Belgium won 2-0 away at Italy on matchday 1
France beat Turkey 1-0 on matchday 1
Played at King Baudouin Stadium, Brussels

France are favourites but the de-vigged probability lands near 50%, short of the 55% pick threshold, so no bet.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Belgium v France →

Türkiye v ItalyNo betInternational · Nations League · 21:45 EAT

Türkiye
2.50Draw
3.50Italy
2.60

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 37% / 27% / 36% for home win, draw and away win.

Turkey lost 0-1 at home to France on matchday 1
Italy lost 0-2 to Belgium on matchday 1

A near pick'em three-way market; no outcome clears 55% fair probability.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Türkiye v Italy →

Sweden v PolandNo betInternational · Nations League · 21:45 EAT

Sweden
2.08Draw
3.50Poland
3.35

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 45% / 27% / 28% for home win, draw and away win.

Sweden won 2-1 away at Romania on matchday 1
Poland drew 0-0 with Bosnia on matchday 1
Played at Strawberry Arena, Stockholm

Sweden are favourites but fair probability sits at 45%, below the 55% floor.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Sweden v Poland →

Romania v Bosnia and HerzegovinaNo betInternational · Nations League · 19:45 EAT

Romania
2.15Draw
3.40Bosnia and Herzegovina
3.25

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 44% / 28% / 28% for home win, draw and away win.

Romania lost 2-1 away at Sweden on matchday 1 but have won 8 of last 10 at home
Bosnia drew 0-0 with Poland on matchday 1

Home advantage is real but fair probability tops out near 44%, below threshold.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Romania v Bosnia and Herzegovina →

Georgia v UkraineNo betInternational · Nations League · 16:00 EAT

Georgia
2.65Draw
3.30Ukraine
2.60

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 35% / 28% / 37% for home win, draw and away win.

Georgia field a new head coach making his debut
Ukraine are unbeaten through matchday 1 in the group

Ukraine favoured on the road but fair probability is only around 37%, no pick.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Georgia v Ukraine →

Northern Ireland v HungaryNo betInternational · Nations League · 21:45 EAT

Northern Ireland
2.80Draw
3.00Hungary
2.65

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 33% / 32% / 35% for home win, draw and away win.

Match played at Windsor Park, Belfast
Hungary priced as only narrow favourites despite travelling

A tight three-way market with no selection reaching the 55% fair-probability floor.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Northern Ireland v Hungary →

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