Tabiri.

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 27% / 26% / 47% for home win, draw and away win.

• Denmark won last match 2-0 v Wales
• Portugal won 2-1 away at Norway last time out
• 6 Portugal players are one yellow card from a ban
• Ronaldo left Portugal's camp before this fixture

Portugal's fair win probability (~47%) sits well short of the 55% floor, and squad disruption (suspension risk, Ronaldo leaving camp) argues against boosting it, so this is passed.

Full write-up: Denmark v Portugal →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 78% / 14% / 8% for home win, draw and away win.

• Germany lost 0-1 to Greece last out despite 76% possession
• Serbia have lost back-to-back Nations League games

Germany are too short at 1.20 to clear the 1.30 odds floor despite a high fair probability; Serbia and the draw are far below the prob floor.

Full write-up: Germany v Serbia →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 27% / 27% / 46% for home win, draw and away win.

• Netherlands won 2-1 away at Serbia last time out
• Greece have won both Nations League games so far, including beating Germany

Netherlands' fair probability (~46%) is below the 55% threshold despite being clear market favourites.

Full write-up: Greece v Netherlands →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 15% / 20% / 65% for home win, draw and away win.

• Haaland has scored 14 goals in his last 10 games for Norway
• Norway are 2nd in the group with 3 points, Wales bottom with 0

Norway's fair probability (~65%) clears 55%, but even with the maximum 8-point adjustment the edge over the 1.45 market price falls just short of the required 4 points, so it is left out.

Full write-up: Wales v Norway →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 28% / 29% / 43% for home win, draw and away win.

• Ireland won their last match 3-0 v Israel
• Austria lead the group after two games

Austria's fair probability (~43%) is far from the 55% bar needed to qualify.

Full write-up: Republic of Ireland v Austria →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 30% / 28% / 42% for home win, draw and away win.

• Kosovo have never lost to Israel
• Israel have zero points from two Nations League games this campaign

Kosovo's fair probability (~42%) stays under the 55% floor despite being favourites.

Full write-up: Israel v Kosovo →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 76% / 18% / 6% for home win, draw and away win.

• Malta are heavy home favourites in League D Group 1

Malta's price of 1.25 is below the 1.30 minimum odds allowed, so no pick despite a high fair probability.

Full write-up: Malta v Gibraltar →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 80% / 15% / 5% for home win, draw and away win.

• Tipsters widely expect a comfortable Azerbaijan win, several predicting 2-0

Odds of 1.13 are far below the 1.30 floor, excluding this pick regardless of probability.

Full write-up: Azerbaijan v Liechtenstein →