Tabiri.

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 67% / 19% / 14% for home win, draw and away win.

• France have 6/6 points from two matches
• Italy lost to Belgium before beating Turkey

France are heavy favourites but the price already reflects it; no edge once the margin is removed.

Full write-up: France v Italy →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 62% / 21% / 18% for home win, draw and away win.

• Belgium beat Italy 2-0 then lost 1-0 to France
• Turkey are winless in two games

Belgium are short-priced hosts; fair probability trails the implied price by too much to qualify.

Full write-up: Belgium v Turkey →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 60% / 23% / 17% for home win, draw and away win.

• Poland winless in five matches overall
• Romania have conceded seven goals in two Nations League games

Poland are favoured on home soil but their own poor run keeps this short of a confirmed value edge.

Full write-up: Poland v Romania →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 46% / 28% / 26% for home win, draw and away win.

• Ukraine play home games at a neutral venue
• Both sides are level on four points with promotion at stake

Too tight a match for a 55%+ probability on either side at these odds.

Full write-up: Ukraine v Northern Ireland →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 29% / 27% / 44% for home win, draw and away win.

• Sweden are unbeaten in nine straight Nations League matches
• Sweden sit top of the group with 6 points

Sweden are favourites away from home but not enough to clear the 55% threshold after de-vigging.

Full write-up: Bosnia and Herzegovina v Sweden →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 45% / 28% / 27% for home win, draw and away win.

• Hungary are unbeaten in their last four matches
• Georgia have one draw and five losses in their last six games

Hungary are favoured but the odds already price in Georgia's poor form; no qualifying edge.

Full write-up: Hungary v Georgia →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 53% / 26% / 21% for home win, draw and away win.

• Moldova are winless in 17 games in all competitions
• Kazakhstan lost 2-1 to Slovakia last time out

Kazakhstan's fair probability lands just under 55%, and the gap over the market price is too small to call this value.

Full write-up: Kazakhstan v Moldova →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 19% / 28% / 53% for home win, draw and away win.

• Montenegro have won both of their opening matches
• Latvia have one point from two games and have struggled to score

Montenegro are warranted favourites but fall just short of the probability and edge thresholds required.

Full write-up: Latvia v Montenegro →