Tabiri.

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 23% / 25% / 52% for home win, draw and away win.

• Croatia missing CB Martin Erlic (injury) and RB Josip Juranovic (illness)
• England's Nico O'Reilly withdrew injured; Harry Kane confirmed to start his 124th cap
• England lost 3-2 to Spain then beat Czechia 2-0 earlier in this window
• Match played behind closed doors under UEFA sanction on Croatia

England are favoured but the fair edge over the market is marginal once the bookmaker margin is stripped out, and defensive absences on both sides roughly cancel out, so it falls short of a value pick.

Full write-up: Croatia v England →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 83% / 12% / 5% for home win, draw and away win.

• Spain have won 9 and drawn 1 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.1 goals a game
• Spain already sit on a maximum 6 points in Group A3; Czechia are bottom with none
• Czechia lost 0-2 to England last matchday

Spain are overwhelming favourites but their price sits below the 1.30 odds floor at nearly every book, so no market on this game clears the required threshold.

Full write-up: Spain v Czechia →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 19% / 26% / 55% for home win, draw and away win.

• North Macedonia have gone 6 straight competitive games without scoring and lost their last two Nations League games 0-3 and 0-2
• Scotland lost their last match 0-3 away to Switzerland with 23% possession and no shots on target
• Scotland's longer-term record is 5W-4L-1D in their last 10 games

Scotland's fair win probability only edges the market price by a sliver even after crediting North Macedonia's scoring drought; it needs almost the full evidence allowance to clear the bar, so it stays a lean, not a pick.

Full write-up: North Macedonia v Scotland →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 66% / 21% / 13% for home win, draw and away win.

• Switzerland are unbeaten with 2 wins from 2, scoring 6 and conceding 0 in this campaign
• Slovenia are without forwards Benjamin Sesko, Benjamin Verbic and Andraz Sporar through injury

Switzerland's form and Slovenia's attacking absences support a lean, but closing the gap to the required edge needs nearly the entire 8-point evidence adjustment, too thin to post as a pick.

Full write-up: Switzerland v Slovenia →