Tabiri.

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 59% / 22% / 19% for home win, draw and away win.

• Portugal won the reverse fixture 2-1 a week earlier
• Portugal won 4 of last 5, Norway lost last 2
• No confirmed injuries reported for either side

Portugal's fair win probability (~59%) sits below what the 1.60 price implies (62.5%), so there is no edge; the gap can't be closed without injury-level evidence we don't have.

Full write-up: Portugal v Norway →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 81% / 13% / 6% for home win, draw and away win.

• Netherlands won reverse fixture 2-1 last week, unbeaten in last 4 h2h
• Serbia lost 3 straight, managed 1 shot on target in last loss

Netherlands are overwhelming favourites but at 1.16 the odds sit outside the 1.30-2.60 window the rules allow, so the pick is disqualified regardless of probability.

Full write-up: Netherlands v Serbia →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 23% / 25% / 52% for home win, draw and away win.

• Greece beat Germany 1-0 in the reverse fixture
• Germany missing Havertz, Musiala, Kimmich and Schlotterbeck

Germany's fair probability is only 52%, under the 55% floor; the confirmed absences cut against raising it further.

Full write-up: Greece v Germany →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 28% / 27% / 45% for home win, draw and away win.

• Austria won the reverse fixture 3-1
• No confirmed injuries reported for either side

Austria's de-vigged probability is 45%, well short of 55%, so this doesn't qualify despite being favourites.

Full write-up: Kosovo v Austria →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 27% / 25% / 48% for home win, draw and away win.

• Denmark have won all 4 previous meetings
• Denmark missing Dorgu, Gronbaek, Christensen, Bah and Dolberg; Wales missing 8 including Rodon and Colwill

Denmark's fair probability is 48%, under the floor, and the confirmed defensive absentees argue against pushing it higher.

Full write-up: Wales v Denmark →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 46% / 28% / 26% for home win, draw and away win.

• Ireland won reverse fixture 3-0
• Ireland captain Nathan Collins is out injured
• Israel have not scored in their last two Nations League games

Ireland's fair probability is only 46%; Collins' absence offsets the attacking edge, so it stays under 55%.

Full write-up: Republic of Ireland v Israel →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 59% / 27% / 14% for home win, draw and away win.

• Malta beat Andorra 2-1 in this cycle's reverse fixture on 24 Sep 2026
• Malta unbeaten in last 5 h2h meetings
• No new injury news beyond what's already priced in

Malta clear the 55% floor at 59%, but that's already below the 63% implied by the 1.58 price, and there's no fresh evidence beyond the already-priced-in head-to-head record to close the gap.

Full write-up: Malta v Andorra →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 40% / 30% / 30% for home win, draw and away win.

• Teams drew 1-1 in their last meeting
• Group D fixture with no standout favourite

No outcome reaches 50% let alone the 55% floor; this is too open to call.

Full write-up: Azerbaijan v Lithuania →