Tabiri.

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 60% / 22% / 18% for home win, draw and away win.

• Mbappé hurt his knee Sept 25 (10-12 day expected absence), Guendouzi suspended, Zaïre-Emery and Konaté also out
• Belgium missing Courtois, Trossard (heel) and Doku

France are short favourites but both sides are missing key players, and the de-vigged home probability (~60%) doesn't clear the edge needed over 1.50 odds.

Full write-up: France v Belgium →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 65% / 19% / 16% for home win, draw and away win.

• Italy hosting at Bologna in League A1
• Fair home probability after removing margin is ~65% but odds of 1.42 already price in roughly that much, leaving no edge

Heavy Italy favourites with no verified news to justify pushing probability further above the market price.

Full write-up: Italy v Türkiye →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 40% / 29% / 31% for home win, draw and away win.

• Fair probabilities are roughly even across all three outcomes per market pricing

No outcome reaches the 55% probability floor required to even consider a pick.

Full write-up: Ukraine v Hungary →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 28% / 28% / 44% for home win, draw and away win.

• Poland without suspended Robert Lewandowski

Poland's fair away probability (~44%) is both below the 55% floor and weakened further by Lewandowski's absence.

Full write-up: Bosnia and Herzegovina v Poland →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 21% / 23% / 56% for home win, draw and away win.

• Romania lost 6-0 to Poland last time out and are bottom of the group with 0 points
• Sweden missing Alexander Isak, Emil Holm and Carl Starfelt through injury, plus an illness outbreak before their last game

Sweden's de-vigged probability (~56%) barely misses the required edge over 1.68, and their own injury list is a reason to be cautious rather than to boost it further.

Full write-up: Romania v Sweden →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 39% / 30% / 31% for home win, draw and away win.

• Northern Ireland have not conceded in three games and lead Group B2 on 7 points
• Georgia have failed to score in five straight matches across all competitions

The home win fair probability (~39%) is too low for a 1X2 pick; an Under 2.5/BTTS-No goals angle was closer but still just short of the required edge once margin is removed.

Full write-up: Northern Ireland v Georgia →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 57% / 25% / 18% for home win, draw and away win.

• Latvia are winless in three games with just one win since March 2026
• Cyprus sit second in the group on four points

Cyprus' fair probability (~57%) clears 55% but not the required edge over 1.67 odds without extra unverified boost.

Full write-up: Cyprus v Latvia →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 62% / 22% / 16% for home win, draw and away win.

• Montenegro have won all three group games (9 points)
• Armenia have one win and two losses (3 points)

Montenegro's strong form is already reflected in the short 1.56 price, so the fair probability (~62%) doesn't clear the extra edge needed to qualify as a pick.

Full write-up: Montenegro v Armenia →