Tabiri.

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 8% / 15% / 77% for home win, draw and away win.

• Spain won all 3 group games (9 pts) and beat Croatia 4-1 in the reverse fixture
• Croatia missing Juranovic and Erlic through injury, leaked 11 goals in last 2 games

Spain are fairly priced favourites but their odds sit below our 1.30 floor, so there is no playable line here.

Full write-up: Croatia v Spain →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 24% / 29% / 47% for home win, draw and away win.

• Finland top the group with 9 scored, 1 conceded
• The sides drew 0-0 in this window just a week earlier
• Finland have only 1 win in their last 4 away games

Finland are the likely winners but the fair probability (47%) falls well short of the 55% bar, and the recent head-to-head draw argues against stretching it.

Full write-up: Belarus v Finland →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 53% / 27% / 20% for home win, draw and away win.

• Slovenia's Benjamin Sesko (shin injury) ruled out
• Scotland's Scott McKenna suspended after a red card v North Macedonia
• The teams drew 0-0 in the reverse fixture this window

Scotland lean as favourites but with their own defensive absence offsetting Slovenia's injury news, the edge needed over the market price isn't there.

Full write-up: Scotland v Slovenia →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 91% / 6% / 3% for home win, draw and away win.

• Switzerland have won all 3 group games with an 8-1 goal difference
• North Macedonia are winless (0-7 GD) and missing suspended Jani Atanasov

A near-certain Switzerland win but priced far below the 1.30 odds floor.

Full write-up: Switzerland v North Macedonia →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 11% / 20% / 69% for home win, draw and away win.

• Slovakia have conceded in each of their last two matches (BTTS in 5 of last 7)
• Moldova just won 2-1 at Kazakhstan, their first win in 17 games

Slovakia remain favourites but fair probability (69%) is short of what's needed to clear the market price, and Slovakia's leaky defence adds doubt.

Full write-up: Moldova v Slovakia →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 40% / 30% / 30% for home win, draw and away win.

• Multiple prediction models split 32-44% across all three outcomes with no consensus favourite

A genuine toss-up with no outcome reaching the 55% threshold.

Full write-up: Kazakhstan v Faroe Islands →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 97% / 2% / 1% for home win, draw and away win.

• San Marino are winless and scoreless in the group, conceding 14 goals in 3 games
• Albania are missing suspended keeper Berisha but still won their last two before a narrow loss to Finland

Albania are overwhelming favourites but at odds far below the 1.30 floor.

Full write-up: Albania v San Marino →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 86% / 10% / 4% for home win, draw and away win.

• England are unbeaten in this window with strong underlying numbers (model puts them near 80% to win)

England are heavy favourites but odds sit well below the 1.30 floor.

Full write-up: England v Czechia →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 6% / 11% / 83% for home win, draw and away win.

• Iceland favoured at roughly 62-70% across bookmaker and model estimates
• Estonia have 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in their last 5

Iceland look the likely winners but their price sits just below the 1.30 odds floor.

Full write-up: Estonia v Iceland →