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Picks for Sunday 11 October 2026 · Nairobi time

← Today’s picks

Sunday 11 October 2026

Result: 1 of 1 slips won.

Leo single

1 selection · first kickoff 18:30 EATAI pick

Total odds1.56
SportyBet booking codeWon
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The booking code goes up here before the first kickoff. The picks below are ready now.
  1. Spain · LaLiga · 18:30 EAT
    Real Betis v Osasuna5-2
    1X2Real Betis
    AI 69% · odds imply 64%+5 edge

    Osasuna missing 4 first-teamers (Rosier, Herrando, Moro, Del Castillo) plus a doubtful; Betis 3rd on 16pts, 4W-1D-1L in last 6.

    1.56Won
KSh 100 stake returns KSh 156 if it wins

Betis are well short-handed opponents and in form, a modest edge over the market price.

The matches we studied that day

The odds as they stood, what they imply once the bookmaker’s margin is taken out, and why each match was backed or skipped.

Real Betis v OsasunaValue pickSpain · LaLiga · 18:30 EAT
Real Betis
1.56Draw
4.52Osasuna
6.52

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 63% / 22% / 15% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Osasuna missing Rosier, Herrando, Moro, Del Castillo to injury, Barja doubtful
  • Betis 3rd with 16pts, form W-L-W-W-W-D
  • Osasuna 13th with 8pts

Fair price already favours Betis at 63%; the depth of Osasuna's injury list and the form gap push this past the market line, so backing Betis offers a modest verified edge.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Real Betis v Osasuna →

Liverpool v Manchester CityNo betEngland · Premier League · 19:30 EAT
Liverpool
2.75Draw
3.75Manchester City
2.65

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 32% / 26% / 42% for home win, draw and away win.

  • City lead the table on 15pts from 5 games
  • Liverpool unbeaten domestically under new boss Andoni Iraola

No outcome clears 55% fair probability even before the edge test, so this stays out of the slips despite being the standout fixture.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Liverpool v Manchester City →

Lazio v MonzaNo betItaly · Serie A · ask: n/a EAT
Lazio
1.55Draw
3.90Monza
6.00

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 60% / 24% / 16% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Lazio heavily favoured at home, Monza struggling

Fair probability for Lazio (~60%) is high, but the bookmaker margin means even the maximum 8pp adjustment falls just short of the required edge over the implied price.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Lazio v Monza →

Hull City v EvertonNo betEngland · Premier League · ask: n/a EAT
Hull City
3.40Draw
3.40Everton
2.02

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 27% / 27% / 46% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Everton unbeaten with 9pts, Hull newly promoted with 8pts from 2 wins

Everton's fair win probability (~46%) can't reach the 55% floor even with the full adjustment allowance.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Hull City v Everton →

SC Freiburg v Schalke 04No betGermany · Bundesliga · ask: n/a EAT
SC Freiburg
1.70Draw
4.10Schalke 04
4.90

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 57% / 24% / 19% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Freiburg missing Osterhage, Yamamoto and Muslija to injury
  • Schalke sit 12th but have lost only 1 of their first 4 games back in the top flight

Freiburg clears 55% fair, but their own injury list and Schalke's solid start give no concrete reason to push the probability up enough to beat the implied price, so this is left out.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: SC Freiburg v Schalke 04 →

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