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Picks for Monday 12 October 2026 · Nairobi time

Monday 12 October 2026

No picks were posted on this day.
No club football was played today in Germany or France (Bundesliga and Ligue 1 are between rounds, no Monday fixtures), so I checked the four matches that did play: Premier League (Coventry v Newcastle), LaLiga (Levante v Sevilla) and Serie A (Atalanta v Venezia, Torino v Udinese). None cleared the bar: no outcome in Coventry-Newcastle, Levante-Sevilla or Torino-Udinese reached 55% fair probabilit

The matches we studied that day

The odds as they stood, what they imply once the bookmaker’s margin is taken out, and why each match was backed or skipped.

Coventry City v Newcastle UnitedNo betEngland · Premier League · 22:00 EAT

Coventry City
3.15Draw
3.60Newcastle United
2.19

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 30% / 26% / 44% for home win, draw and away win.

Coventry 19th with 1W-0D-4L, just snapped a 4-game losing run beating Nottingham Forest
Newcastle have no suspensions; Dan Burn (ankle) and Tino Livramento (hamstring) are doubtful/out

Newcastle are favourites but only ~43% fair win probability and the draw/away double chance (1.39) implies more than the de-vigged estimate, so there is no priced edge.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Coventry City v Newcastle United →

Levante v SevillaNo betSpain · LaLiga · 22:00 EAT

Levante
2.60Draw
3.25Sevilla
2.75

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 36% / 29% / 35% for home win, draw and away win.

Levante 17th with 5 points (1W-2D-2L); Sevilla 5th with 13 points (4W-1D-2L)

A near three-way split with no outcome above 55% fair probability; Sevilla/draw double chance odds imply a higher probability than the de-vigged fair figure, so no value.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Levante v Sevilla →

Atalanta v VeneziaLeanItaly · Serie A · 19:30 EAT

Atalanta
1.62Draw
3.90Venezia
4.75

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 57% / 24% / 19% for home win, draw and away win.

Atalanta have lost their last three Serie A games; Raspadori (hamstring, due back Oct 18) and Kossounou/Hien remain out
Venezia are winless in all 5 rounds and have the league's leakiest defence

Atalanta clear 55% fair probability but every safer market (win, draw-no-bet ~1.21, double chance ~1.15-1.21, over 1.5 at 1.17) is priced below the 1.30 floor, so nothing here is backable under the rules.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Atalanta v Venezia →

Torino v UdineseNo betItaly · Serie A · 20:45 EAT

Torino
2.36Draw
3.20Udinese
3.15

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 40% / 30% / 30% for home win, draw and away win.

Both sides sit mid-table with no standout injury news found

A flat three-way market with no outcome near 55% fair probability, so there is nothing to back.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Torino v Udinese →

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