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Picks for Friday 16 October 2026 · Nairobi time

Friday 16 October 2026

No picks were posted on this day.
Premier League has no Friday fixture and the Champions League/Europa League are between matchdays, so today's slate was just one game apiece in LaLiga, Serie A, Ligue 1 and Bundesliga; in each case the fair win probability after stripping the bookmaker margin fell short of the 55% bar, so no slips qualify today.

The matches we studied that day

The odds as they stood, what they imply once the bookmaker’s margin is taken out, and why each match was backed or skipped.

Deportivo A Coruña v Levante UDNo betSpain · LaLiga · 22:00 EAT

Deportivo A Coruña
2.13Draw
3.45Levante UD
3.50

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 45% / 28% / 27% for home win, draw and away win.

Deportivo missing Aubameyang (knee) and Casado (muscle), with Amatucci suspended
Levante missing Hugo Sotelo (knee)

Depor are modest favourites but their fair win probability is only around 45%, well short of the threshold needed for a pick despite the home side's injury-hit opponents.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Deportivo A Coruña v Levante UD →

Frosinone v SassuoloNo betItaly · Serie A · 21:45 EAT

Frosinone
2.62Draw
3.95Sassuolo
2.76

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 38% / 25% / 37% for home win, draw and away win.

Sassuolo's Fedde Leysen suffered an ACL injury in their last match and is out long-term
Both sides played just five to six days earlier

A near-even three-way market with no outcome clearing 40% fair probability, let alone 55%, so this is a clear pass.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Frosinone v Sassuolo →

Le Mans FC v Toulouse FCNo betFrance · Ligue 1 · 21:45 EAT

Le Mans FC
2.95Draw
3.42Toulouse FC
2.22

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 31% / 27% / 42% for home win, draw and away win.

Toulouse are market favourites at odds near 2.22 after a 2-2 draw with Monaco
Le Mans missing Adil Bourabaa (ankle)

Toulouse's fair win probability of roughly 42% is the best of the three outcomes here but still falls well short of the 55% qualification bar.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Le Mans FC v Toulouse FC →

Eintracht Frankfurt v 1.FC KölnNo betGermany · Bundesliga · 21:30 EAT

Eintracht Frankfurt
1.97Draw
3.901.FC Köln
3.50

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 48% / 25% / 27% for home win, draw and away win.

Köln have a lengthy injury list including Ache, Dallinga, Hübers, Skhiri (long-term) and van den Berg
Frankfurt are market favourites at home

Frankfurt's fair probability sits in the high-40s; even allowing for Köln's absentees the adjustment cap keeps it just under the 55% line, so no pick.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Eintracht Frankfurt v 1.FC Köln →

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