Tabiri.

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 14% / 18% / 68% for home win, draw and away win.

• PSG won their last 3 Ligue 1 matches and are unbeaten away in the league
• PSG beat Man City 4-2 away in the Champions League in midweek
• Dembele and Mendes return from scheduled rest
• Strasbourg lost their last 2 league games, snapping a 3-match unbeaten run
• Strasbourg missing Nanasi, Doukoure, Godo and Panichelli through injury

PSG's returning key players and red-hot form against an injury-hit, slumping Strasbourg side support a value lean on the away win beyond the market price.

Full write-up: RC Strasbourg v Paris Saint-Germain →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 20% / 25% / 55% for home win, draw and away win.

• Atletico Madrid have no reported injuries or suspensions for this trip
• Espanyol missing starting goalkeeper Dmitrovic
• Espanyol striker Kike Garcia out with a hamstring tendon injury until December
• Espanyol also missing Jofre Carreras and Andoni Gorosabel

A fully fit Atletico squad against an Espanyol side missing its first-choice keeper and striker tilts this further towards the visitors than the raw odds suggest.

Full write-up: Espanyol v Atlético Madrid →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 56% / 24% / 20% for home win, draw and away win.

• Hull missing six players: Targett, Ansah, Butland, Gyabi, Hughes and Matazo
• Fulham have Robinson back after missing the Ipswich defeat; only Larsson (groin) is a doubt
• Independent model estimates (52-54%) sit below the market-implied Fulham probability

Hull's heavy injury list favours Fulham, but independent models rate the hosts no higher than the market already does, so the edge is not clear enough to call outright value.

Full write-up: Fulham v Hull City →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 78% / 12% / 10% for home win, draw and away win.

• Bayern's win odds (1.22) sit below the 1.30 minimum for a qualifying pick
• Over 2.5 goals priced around 1.14, also too short to qualify
• 33 of Bayern's last 34 home league matches have gone over 2.5 goals

Bayern are overwhelming favourites and the match projects as high-scoring, but every relevant market is priced too short to meet the odds-range requirement.

Full write-up: FC Bayern München v RB Leipzig →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 66% / 21% / 13% for home win, draw and away win.

• Roma missing Svilar (injury) and Malen (suspended); Dybala and Kone also out or doubtful, leaving them short in attack
• Genoa missing Nuredini, Colombo, Sow and Venturino

Roma are warranted favourites but their own attacking injuries offset any case for pushing the probability high enough above the market price to clear the required edge.

Full write-up: AS Roma v Genoa →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 17% / 22% / 61% for home win, draw and away win.

• Inter without Lautaro Martinez (out over a month) and Curtis Jones; Stones doubtful
• Bologna without Orsolini, Holm (4 months), Theate and a doubtful Mbangula

Inter missing their main striker Lautaro Martinez is a concrete negative for their win probability, removing the case for any upward adjustment on the favourites.

Full write-up: Bologna v Inter Milan →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 20% / 25% / 55% for home win, draw and away win.

• Venezia bottom of the table and winless, missing four players including captain Busio
• Napoli missing Buongiorno, Vergara, Favasuli and now Neres; Olivera back, Anguissa available

Both sides carry notable absences that roughly offset each other, leaving no clean verified reason to lift Napoli's probability enough to clear the required edge.

Full write-up: Venezia v Napoli →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 74% / 16% / 10% for home win, draw and away win.

• Man City's win odds (1.25) fall below the 1.30 minimum required for a qualifying pick

City are heavily expected to win but the price is too short to meet the odds-range rule, regardless of the size of their edge.

Full write-up: Manchester City v Ipswich Town →