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Picks for Sunday 18 October 2026 · Nairobi time

← Today’s picks

Sunday 18 October 2026

Result: 1 of 1 slips won.

Leo single

1 selection · first kickoff 18:30 EATEditor’s pick

Total odds1.61

SportyBet booking codeWon

4VQD49

Open on SportyBet ↗

· 18:30 EAT
Nottingham forest v Arsenal fc0-1
PickArsenal
1.61Won

The matches we studied that day

The odds as they stood, what they imply once the bookmaker’s margin is taken out, and why each match was backed or skipped.

Nottingham Forest v ArsenalLeanEngland · Premier League · 18:30 EAT

Nottingham Forest
5.75Draw
3.85Arsenal
1.63

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 17% / 25% / 58% for home win, draw and away win.

Arsenal have lost just 1 of 6 league games this season
Forest sit 15th and lost their last match at Palace, where Gibbs-White was hurt
Arsenal missing Saliba, Zubimendi(doubt), Hincapie and Tzolis

Arsenal are clear favourites and Forest are out of form, but Arsenal's own injury list means the edge over the de-vigged price is not large enough to trust a pick.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Nottingham Forest v Arsenal →

Brighton & Hove Albion v Crystal PalaceLeanEngland · Premier League · 15:00 EAT

Brighton & Hove Albion
1.47Draw
4.75Crystal Palace
6.25

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 65% / 20% / 15% for home win, draw and away win.

Brighton have won 5 straight including a 3-0 win over Arsenal and sit 3rd
Palace are missing both first-choice centre-backs: Riad (out for the season) and Disasi (suspended)

Brighton's form and Palace's defensive crisis are real, but the price is already so short (1.47) that clearing the required value margin needs an adjustment at the very edge of what verified evidence can support.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Brighton & Hove Albion v Crystal Palace →

AC Milan v AtalantaLeanItaly · Serie A · 18:00 EAT

AC Milan
1.76Draw
3.75Atalanta
4.25

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 53% / 25% / 22% for home win, draw and away win.

Atalanta have lost their last 2 league away games and are missing both starting centre-backs (Kossounou, Hien) plus Scalvini
Milan drew 1-1 at Sassuolo last time out in the league

Atalanta's depleted back line is notable, but Milan's own inconsistency keeps this short of a confident value pick.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: AC Milan v Atalanta →

Juventus v LazioNo betItaly · Serie A · 20:45 EAT

Juventus
1.66Draw
3.70Lazio
5.10

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 56% / 25% / 18% for home win, draw and away win.

Juventus are unbeaten in 7 straight home league meetings with Lazio
Lazio have won their last 3 away matches and sit 2nd in the table

Lazio's current form offsets Juventus' home H2H record, and the price gap is too wide to clear with a reasonable adjustment.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Juventus v Lazio →

Bayer Leverkusen v FreiburgNo betGermany · Bundesliga · 14:30 EAT

Bayer Leverkusen
1.64Draw
4.20Freiburg
4.50

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 57% / 22% / 21% for home win, draw and away win.

Leverkusen have won back-to-back matches including a Europa League rout
Freiburg's Suzuki is suspended until Oct 25 and they have only 3 away wins in 10

Leverkusen look solid but the odds already reflect their home dominance; no verified edge large enough to qualify.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Bayer Leverkusen v Freiburg →

Lyon v NiceNo betFrance · Ligue 1 · 21:45 EAT

Lyon
1.71Draw
3.80Nice
4.50

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 55% / 25% / 21% for home win, draw and away win.

Lyon have won 12 of their last 18 home games
Nice have lost 12 of their last 18 away games and are missing Mendy (ACL) and Bombito

Lyon's home record is priced in already; fair probability sits right at 55 with no safe margin over the market odds.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Lyon v Nice →

Celta Vigo v Deportivo AlavesNo betSpain · LaLiga · 15:15 EAT

Celta Vigo
2.16Draw
3.20Deportivo Alaves
3.55

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 44% / 31% / 25% for home win, draw and away win.

Celta drew 0-0 last league outing and lost to Juventus in the Europa League midweek
Alaves are winless in their last 3 away games

Neither side's fair probability reaches 55%, so no side qualifies.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Celta Vigo v Deportivo Alaves →

CA Osasuna v Racing SantanderNo betSpain · LaLiga · 16:00 EAT

CA Osasuna
1.95Draw
3.80Racing Santander
3.50

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 48% / 26% / 26% for home win, draw and away win.

Osasuna have conceded 18 goals in 7 games this season
Odds sources disagreed sharply on Osasuna's true favourite status, undermining confidence in any edge

Conflicting market data and a fair probability under 55% rule this out.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: CA Osasuna v Racing Santander →

Real Madrid v SevillaNo betSpain · LaLiga · 20:00 EAT

Real Madrid
1.27Draw
6.25Sevilla
8.50

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 79% / 11% / 10% for home win, draw and away win.

Real Madrid priced as heavy favourites against a struggling Sevilla

Odds on Real Madrid are below the 1.30 floor required for a qualifying pick, so this match is excluded regardless of probability.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Real Madrid v Sevilla →

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