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Picks for Monday 19 October 2026 · Nairobi time

← Today’s picks

Monday 19 October 2026

Result: 0 of 1 slips won.

Leo single

1 selection · first kickoff 13:30 EATAI pick

Total odds1.63
SportyBet booking codeLost
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The booking code goes up here before the first kickoff. The picks below are ready now.
  1. Italy · Serie A · 13:30 EAT
    Monza v Cagliari4-0
    Double chanceDraw or Cagliari
    AI 72% · odds imply 61%+11 edge

    Monza missing suspended Lucchesi, injured Pessina plus 3 others; Cagliari in good form (W6D2L2 last 10) and drew away at Juventus.

    1.63Lost
KSh 100 stake returns KSh 163 if it wins

Cagliari's form edge and Monza's injury list make the draw-or-away cover good value.

The matches we studied that day

The odds as they stood, what they imply once the bookmaker’s margin is taken out, and why each match was backed or skipped.

Monza v CagliariValue pickItaly · Serie A · 13:30 EAT
Monza
2.40Draw
2.05Cagliari
2.10

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 30% / 35% / 35% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Monza lost 3-1 to Lazio last time out, 34% possession
  • Lucchesi suspended (red card), Pessina out with knee injury, 3 more unavailable
  • Cagliari drew 1-1 away at Juventus, form W6 D2 L2 in last 10 vs Monza's W3 D2 L5
  • Double chance X2 (draw or Cagliari) priced at 1.63

Monza's thin, patched-up squad against a Cagliari side in much better form makes the draw-or-away cover worth more than its 1.63 price.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Monza v Cagliari →

Getafe v Rayo VallecanoNo betSpain · LaLiga · 22:00 EAT
Getafe
2.90Draw
3.00Rayo Vallecano
2.70

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 33% / 32% / 35% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Bet365 1X2: 2.90/3.00/2.70, closely matched across 24 bookmakers on Oddschecker
  • Rayo's Ratiu absent from training, doubtful
  • No outcome or double chance combo clears the required edge over the fair price

Market is efficiently priced on both sides; no selection meets the probability or edge thresholds.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Getafe v Rayo Vallecano →

Parma v TorinoNo betItaly · Serie A · 15:45 EAT
Parma
3.00Draw
3.15Torino
2.50

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 32% / 30% / 38% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Torino favourites at 2.50 but fair price is only ~38% once margin removed
  • Under 2.5 and BTTS odds split close to fair value, no clear mispricing
  • X2 double chance (draw or Torino) at 1.36-1.40 is priced above its fair probability

Torino are the best side in this match but the double chance price already reflects that; no pick clears the edge bar.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Parma v Torino →

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