Tabiri.

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 70% / 19% / 11% for home win, draw and away win.

• Arsenal missing Saka (quad), Saliba (back) and Tzolis (thigh); Hincapie back available

Arsenal are heavy favorites but their own injury list (Saka, Saliba, Tzolis) argues against stretching probability above the already-short price, so the edge needed over the de-vigged odds isn't there.

Full write-up: Arsenal v Everton →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 19% / 27% / 54% for home win, draw and away win.

• City priced at 1.65, fair probability only ~54% after removing the margin

City's fair win probability sits just under the 55% floor even before any margin check, so this doesn't qualify.

Full write-up: Aston Villa v Manchester City →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 76% / 16% / 8% for home win, draw and away win.

• Atletico unbeaten in 5, chasing a sixth straight win

Fair probability is well above 55% but the home price of 1.29 is below the 1.30 minimum odds allowed, so it's excluded on price alone.

Full write-up: Atletico Madrid v Deportivo La Coruna →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 33% / 31% / 36% for home win, draw and away win.

• Tight three-way market, no outcome above 36% fair probability

No selection reaches anywhere near the 55% threshold; this is a genuine toss-up.

Full write-up: Napoli v Roma →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 63% / 19% / 18% for home win, draw and away win.

• Dortmund odds-on at home, but market margin on this price is sizeable

Fair probability (63%) clears 55%, but closing the gap to the de-vigged odds would need a bigger adjustment than the 8-point cap allows.

Full write-up: Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 69% / 20% / 11% for home win, draw and away win.

• Lazio won 3-0 at Juventus last time out, 4 wins in last 5
• Lazio without Rovella, Marusic, Gudmundsson, Furlanetto and Taylor
• Parma without Nicolussi Caviglia, Almqvist and doubtful Ndiaye, plus a Troilo suspension

Lazio's form and Parma's injury list look supportive, but Lazio are also missing five of their own players, so the evidence cuts both ways and doesn't justify stretching close to the 8-point adjustment cap this needs.

Full write-up: Lazio v Parma →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 52% / 25% / 23% for home win, draw and away win.

• Union Berlin 0 wins in 2 away games, conceding in 3 straight road matches, lost 7-0 to Bayern
• Union missing Juranovic, Ilic, Markgraf, Friedrich, Nsoki
• Augsburg have won just 1 of their last 5 (lost 3-4 at Elversberg) and are missing Banks, Claude-Maurice, Sakar and Mounie

Union's away collapse looks like a strong case for Augsburg, but Augsburg's own poor recent form and injury list offset it, so the already-priced gap isn't a genuine extra edge.

Full write-up: FC Augsburg v 1. FC Union Berlin →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 65% / 21% / 14% for home win, draw and away win.

• Como have been in strong recent form at home

Fair probability clears 55%, but the de-vigged gap needs more than the allowed 8-point adjustment to turn into a qualifying edge.

Full write-up: Como v Sassuolo →

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 50% / 24% / 26% for home win, draw and away win.

• Three-way market close to even once margin is removed

Chelsea's fair probability is only around 50%, short of the 55% floor.

Full write-up: Chelsea v Tottenham →