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Picks for Friday 23 October 2026 · Nairobi time

← Today’s picks

Friday 23 October 2026

Result: 1 of 1 slips won.

Leo Single

1 selection · first kickoff 22:00 EATEditor’s pick

Total odds2.25
SportyBet booking codeWon
4EZLLM
Open on SportyBet ↗
  1. · 22:00 EAT
    Ipswich v Nottingham forest1-2
    PickNottingham forest
    2.25Won
KSh 100 stake returns KSh 225 if it wins

Posted by hand, not by the analyst. The AI did not rate this match as value — it is here on the editor’s judgement. It is scored separately on the record page.

The matches we studied that day

The odds as they stood, what they imply once the bookmaker’s margin is taken out, and why each match was backed or skipped.

Ipswich Town v Nottingham ForestNo betEngland · Premier League · 22:00 EAT
Ipswich Town
3.10Draw
3.50Nottingham Forest
2.25

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 31% / 27% / 42% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Forest have lost 3 straight and are 5 home games without a win in all competitions
  • Ipswich's Sasa Lukic misses a second straight game with a groin injury
  • Forest's Igor Jesus and Nicolo Savona are out; Morgan Gibbs-White returns from a muscle issue

Forest are favoured on current form despite sitting 19th, but the de-vigged edge (42%) doesn't clear the 55% bar for a pick.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest →

Alaves v MalagaNo betSpain · LaLiga · 22:00 EAT
Alaves
1.80Draw
3.40Malaga
4.33

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 51% / 27% / 22% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Malaga are winless in 9 La Liga games (4 draws, 5 losses) and average a league-low 0.43 goals per game
  • Alaves have lost their last two matches, both at home, to Atletico Madrid and Celta
  • Alaves are missing Mikel Rodriguez and Facundo Garces (both cruciate ligament injuries)

Malaga's form is dreadful but Alaves' own recent home slump keeps the fair probability (51%) short of what the short odds demand.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Alaves v Malaga →

Torino v MonzaNo betItaly · Serie A · 21:45 EAT
Torino
2.05Draw
3.50Monza
3.50

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 46% / 27% / 27% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Torino are unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 league games
  • Monza have won just once in their last 5 and sit in the bottom third of the table
  • Monza have conceded 2.4 goals per away game this season with no clean sheets on the road

Torino are the sensible lean but a 46% fair probability, even with Monza's poor away record, doesn't reach the 55% qualifying floor.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Torino v Monza →

VfB Stuttgart v Borussia MonchengladbachLeanGermany · Bundesliga · 21:30 EAT
VfB Stuttgart
1.40Draw
5.20Borussia Monchengladbach
6.50

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 67% / 18% / 15% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Gladbach are bottom of the Bundesliga with 0 points from 6 games, 6 straight losses and a -12 goal difference
  • Stuttgart lost their last league game 0-1 away at Hamburger SV before drawing Atletico Madrid in the Champions League

Stuttgart's 67% fair win probability is well clear of 55%, but at odds around 1.40 the required edge over the market isn't met, so this stays a lean rather than a pick.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Monchengladbach →

Brest v NiceNo betFrance · Ligue 1 · 16:45 EAT
Brest
2.25Draw
3.70Nice
3.33

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 44% / 26% / 30% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Brest and Nice both arrived level on 8 points from 6 games
  • Brest beat Nice 4-1 in their last meeting and average 2.0 goals scored per game at home this season

An open, fairly even match (44/26/30) with no side clearing the probability threshold for a pick.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Brest v Nice →

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