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Alaves v Malaga · Friday 23 October 2026

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Alaves vs Malaga prediction

Spain · LaLiga · 22:00 EAT · Friday 23 October 2026No bet

The odds

Alaves
1.80Draw
3.40Malaga
4.33

Take the bookmaker’s margin out of those odds and the market makes it 51% Alaves, 27% draw, 22% Malaga.

51%27%22%

AlavesDrawMalaga

What we found

Malaga are winless in 9 La Liga games (4 draws, 5 losses) and average a league-low 0.43 goals per game
Alaves have lost their last two matches, both at home, to Atletico Madrid and Celta
Alaves are missing Mikel Rodriguez and Facundo Garces (both cruciate ligament injuries)

Our call

Malaga's form is dreadful but Alaves' own recent home slump keeps the fair probability (51%) short of what the short odds demand.

Did we bet it?

We did not back this match.
It did not clear our margin, so no slip was posted. The reasoning is above — we only post when our estimate beats the price by enough to be worth the risk.

Also studied that day

Brest v Nice · France · Ligue 1
VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Monchengladbach · Germany · Bundesliga
Torino v Monza · Italy · Serie A
Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest · England · Premier League

Everything from Fri 23 Oct →

How picks are made

Every morning an AI analyst studies the day’s matches in the Premier League, LaLiga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, the Champions League and the Europa League — recent form, injuries and suspensions, the table, and the bookmakers’ odds.

It estimates its own chance for each outcome and only posts a pick when that chance is clearly higher than the odds suggest. Picks come as singles and doubles, never long accumulators.

Slips are labelled one of two ways. A value pick is one where our estimate beats the odds by a clear margin. A lean is a side we mildly prefer where the edge is thin or absent — published for interest, not as a reason to bet.