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Picks for Monday 26 October 2026 · Nairobi time

← Today’s picks

Monday 26 October 2026

No picks were posted on this day.
Only two matches from the covered competitions played today: PSG v Lyon (Ligue 1) and Sevilla v Osasuna (LaLiga) — no Premier League, Serie A, Bundesliga, Champions League or Europa League fixtures were on. In both games the heavy favourite's fair (margin-removed) probability came in below its raw market-implied probability, so neither cleared the required value gap, and no other side's probabilit

The matches we studied that day

The odds as they stood, what they imply once the bookmaker’s margin is taken out, and why each match was backed or skipped.

Paris Saint-Germain v LyonNo betFrance · Ligue 1 · 22:30 EAT
Paris Saint-Germain
1.41Draw
4.86Lyon
5.94

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 66% / 19% / 16% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Kvaratskhelia ruled out for the season after rupturing his ACL against Barcelona on Oct 20
  • Dembele and Marquinhos also picked up injuries in that same game
  • PSG on a 7-match winning run; Lyon top the table on the same points total as PSG

PSG's own price already prices in their dominance, and removing the bookmaker margin pulls their fair probability below the market-implied level rather than above it; with three key players freshly injured there is no case for pushing the number back up.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Paris Saint-Germain v Lyon →

Sevilla v OsasunaNo betSpain · LaLiga · 23:00 EAT
Sevilla
1.95Draw
3.40Osasuna
4.00

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 48% / 27% / 25% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Sevilla winless in 4 league games, including a 1-4 loss at Real Madrid
  • Sevilla missing Sierra and Teixeira; Vargas and Stassin still working back from injury
  • Osasuna winless in 5 before beating Racing 2-0 under returning boss Arrasate; Oroz, Herrando and Del Castillo all out injured

Sevilla are favourites but their fair probability sits under 55% and well short of the 4-point margin needed over the market price, and the injury picture is too even between both sides to justify stretching it with an adjustment.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Sevilla v Osasuna →

← Sun 25 OctTue 27 Oct →

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