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Picks for Tuesday 27 October 2026 · Nairobi timeThe odds as they stood, what they imply once the bookmaker’s margin is taken out, and why each match was backed or skipped.
Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 29% / 28% / 43% for home win, draw and away win.
Lazio's form and defensive record favour an away win, but the fair probability (~43%) falls well short of the 55% threshold even allowing for Sassuolo's poor run, so no pick.
Call it — who wins?
Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 70% / 19% / 11% for home win, draw and away win.
Roma are fair favourites but the short odds leave no value edge under the required 4-point gap, so this does not qualify as a pick.
Call it — who wins?
Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 21% / 26% / 53% for home win, draw and away win.
Como's fair win probability (~53%) sits just under the 55% floor, and both sides carry enough injury/fatigue noise that stretching for value here isn't justified.
Call it — who wins?
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