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Picks for Tuesday 27 October 2026 · Nairobi time

← Today’s picks

Tuesday 27 October 2026

No picks were posted on this day.
Checked Premier League, LaLiga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Champions League and Europa League for 27 Oct; only Serie A had fixtures (a midweek round, with the other six leagues/cups between matchdays). None of the three Serie A games cleared the bar: Roma were priced so short (1.35) that the normalised fair probability gave no edge over the market, while Lazio's and Como's fair away-win probabi

The matches we studied that day

The odds as they stood, what they imply once the bookmaker’s margin is taken out, and why each match was backed or skipped.

Sassuolo v LazioNo betItaly · Serie A · 20:30 EAT
Sassuolo
3.42
Draw
3.55
Lazio
2.25

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 29% / 28% / 43% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Lazio unbeaten in last 6 Serie A games (5W-1D) with the league's best defence (5 conceded in 8 games)
  • Sassuolo lost 2 of last 3 (2-4 at Frosinone, 0-2 at Como)
  • Lazio missing Gudmundsson (ankle, 3-4 weeks) with doubts over Rovella and Marusic

Lazio's form and defensive record favour an away win, but the fair probability (~43%) falls well short of the 55% threshold even allowing for Sassuolo's poor run, so no pick.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Sassuolo v Lazio →

Roma v CagliariNo betItaly · Serie A · 22:45 EAT
Roma
1.35
Draw
5.00
Cagliari
8.80

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 70% / 19% / 11% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Roma's 1.35 price already implies a ~70% win probability, matching the normalised fair figure with no margin left over
  • Dybala out since 14 Oct with a calf injury, reportedly close to a return
  • Cagliari missing Felici (ACL), Trepy and Idrissi (ACL, out until November)

Roma are fair favourites but the short odds leave no value edge under the required 4-point gap, so this does not qualify as a pick.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Roma v Cagliari →

Torino v ComoNo betItaly · Serie A · 22:45 EAT
Torino
4.40
Draw
3.60
Como
1.73

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 21% / 26% / 53% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Como on a 3-game winning streak but lost 3-2 away to Feyenoord in the Champions League days earlier
  • Como missing Diao (2-3 weeks), Kean managing a knee issue, plus Rodriguez and Chalobah unavailable
  • Torino missing suspended Çömert, injured Pellegri (ACL) and Fortini, with Adams and Simeone doubtful

Como's fair win probability (~53%) sits just under the 55% floor, and both sides carry enough injury/fatigue noise that stretching for value here isn't justified.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Torino v Como →

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