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Picks for Wednesday 28 October 2026 · Nairobi time

← Today’s picks

Wednesday 28 October 2026

Result: 0 of 1 slips won.

Leo single

1 selection · first kickoff 20:30 EATAI pick

Total odds1.65
SportyBet booking codeLost
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  1. Italy · Serie A · 20:30 EAT
    AC Milan v Bologna2-4
    1X2AC Milan
    AI 65% · odds imply 61%+4 edge

    Milan unbeaten all season (5W-3D), perfect 3/3 at San Siro; Bologna missing Piccoli, Orsolini and Holm long-term; Pulisic in form.

    1.65Lost
KSh 100 stake returns KSh 165 if it wins

Milan are unbeaten at home and Bologna are missing three regular attackers.

The matches we studied that day

The odds as they stood, what they imply once the bookmaker’s margin is taken out, and why each match was backed or skipped.

AC Milan v BolognaValue pickItaly · Serie A · 20:30 EAT
AC Milan
1.65Draw
4.10Bologna
5.60

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 59% / 24% / 17% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Milan unbeaten in Serie A: 5W-3D, perfect 3-for-3 at home
  • Bologna missing Piccoli, Orsolini and Holm long-term
  • Pulisic has 4 goal involvements in last 7 games

Milan's home form and Bologna's attacking absentees push the win probability a few points above the market price, clearing the value threshold at odds of 1.65.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: AC Milan v Bologna →

Parma v UdineseNo betItaly · Serie A · 20:30 EAT
Parma
2.90Draw
3.10Udinese
2.38

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 32% / 30% / 38% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Udinese have lost six straight league matches
  • Parma are the league's lowest scorers this season
  • Odds vary widely across books (h 2.88-3.40), signalling market uncertainty

Neither side is in form and bookmakers disagree sharply on the favourite, so there is no reliable edge on any outcome here.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Parma v Udinese →

Venezia v Inter MilanNo betItaly · Serie A · 20:30 EAT
Venezia
7.70Draw
5.60Inter Milan
1.35

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 12% / 17% / 71% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Inter are Serie A leaders, won 7 of their last 8
  • Lautaro Martinez, captain and top striker, still out injured
  • Venezia sit bottom of the table

Inter are rightly big favourites but the market already prices that in fully, and the Martinez absence removes any case for pushing the probability higher.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Venezia v Inter Milan →

Genoa v JuventusNo betItaly · Serie A · 22:45 EAT
Genoa
5.40Draw
3.80Juventus
1.64

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 17% / 25% / 58% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Juventus missing six regulars: Yildiz, Thuram, Locatelli, Conceicao, Celik, Gonzalez
  • Genoa have won all their home points this season
  • Juventus have a strong record vs bottom-half sides (W10 D4)

Juventus' six absences are concrete negative evidence that argues against boosting their already fully-priced favourite status, so no edge survives.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Genoa v Juventus →

Monza v NapoliNo betItaly · Serie A · 22:45 EAT
Monza
4.50Draw
3.90Napoli
1.75

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 21% / 24% / 55% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Napoli missing Badiashile, Spinazzola, Buongiorno, Neres and others
  • Napoli coach Allegri serving the first of a two-match touchline ban
  • McTominay has scored back-to-back braces for Napoli

Napoli's fair win probability sits right at the 55% floor once their absentee list and the manager's touchline ban are weighed, leaving no margin to clear the required edge.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Monza v Napoli →

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