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Picks for Thursday 29 October 2026 · Nairobi time

← Today’s picks

Thursday 29 October 2026

Result: 1 of 1 slips won.

Leo single

1 selection · first kickoff 20:30 EATAI pick

Total odds1.78
SportyBet booking codeWon
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  1. Italy · Serie A · 20:30 EAT
    Frosinone v Lecce5-1
    1X2Frosinone
    AI 61% · odds imply 56%+5 edge

    Frosinone 14pts/8gms vs Lecce 9pts/8gms; Lecce missing Ilic, Pierotti, Berisha, Coulibaly, Gaspar suspended; Frosinone only missing Grillitsch (22bet odds).

    1.78Won
KSh 100 stake returns KSh 178 if it wins

Frosinone are well-placed to beat a short-handed Lecce side at home.

The matches we studied that day

The odds as they stood, what they imply once the bookmaker’s margin is taken out, and why each match was backed or skipped.

Frosinone v LecceValue pickItaly · Serie A · 20:30 EAT
Frosinone
1.78Draw
4.16Lecce
4.68

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 55% / 24% / 21% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Frosinone 6th with 14pts/8gms, Lecce 12th with 9pts/8gms
  • Lecce missing Berisha, Coulibaly, Ilic, Pierotti (injured), Tiago Gabriel doubtful, Gaspar suspended
  • Frosinone missing only Grillitsch

Home favourites with a clear points-table and squad-depth edge over a depleted Lecce; odds of 1.78 look slightly generous given the gap.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Frosinone v Lecce →

Fiorentina v AtalantaNo betItaly · Serie A · 22:45 EAT
Fiorentina
2.30Draw
3.77Atalanta
3.17

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 43% / 24% / 33% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Fiorentina 18th with 4pts, on a 3-match losing streak
  • Atalanta 11th with 10pts, played at Ajax in the Conference League on 22 Oct then drew Frosinone 4-4 on 25 Oct
  • Both sides carry lengthy injury lists (Fiorentina: Ranieri, Pongracic, Atta; Atalanta: Bellanova, Sulemana, Hien, Scalvini doubtful plus Kessie, Raspadori, Kossounou out)

No selection clears the required fair-probability margin once the bookmaker margin is removed; Fiorentina's home vulnerability and Atalanta's fixture congestion roughly cancel out, so no pick.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Fiorentina v Atalanta →

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