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Picks for Saturday 7 November 2026 · Nairobi time

← Today’s picks

Saturday 7 November 2026

No picks were posted on this day.
All five of the big-5 leagues played full Saturday slates, but neither the Champions League nor Europa League had fixtures (both were midweek Nov 3-5, next round not until Nov 24-25). Across the domestic games, favourites were either priced below our 1.30 odds floor (PSG, Arsenal, Roma, Dortmund all under 1.30) or their fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin stayed below our 55% floo

The matches we studied that day

The odds as they stood, what they imply once the bookmaker’s margin is taken out, and why each match was backed or skipped.

Fulham v Newcastle UnitedNo betEngland · Premier League · 18:00 EAT
Fulham
2.10Draw
3.75Newcastle United
3.60

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 47% / 26% / 27% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Fulham unbeaten in last 3 league games
  • Newcastle lost 4 of last 5 across all competitions

Fulham are favoured but fair probability (~47%) stays below our 55% pick threshold.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Fulham v Newcastle United →

Torino v LecceLeanItaly · Serie A · 17:00 EAT
Torino
1.80Draw
3.67Lecce
4.35

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 52% / 26% / 22% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Torino lost their last two league games after a three-match winning run
  • Lecce have lost four straight and have injury problems in midfield and attack

Torino are favoured at home and close to our floor, but the required edge over the market price is not met.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Torino v Lecce →

Valencia v Real MadridNo betSpain · LaLiga · 23:00 EAT
Valencia
9.09Draw
7.14Real Madrid
1.30

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 11% / 14% / 75% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Real Madrid have won six straight matches
  • Real Madrid played away in the Champions League three days earlier, a short turnaround

Real Madrid clear 55% fair probability, but at 1.30 the market already prices in almost all of that edge, so the 4-point gap requirement isn't met.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Valencia v Real Madrid →

Roma v SassuoloNo betItaly · Serie A · 22:45 EAT
Roma
1.31Draw
5.75Sassuolo
8.58

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 73% / 16% / 11% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Roma are unbeaten in all 10 Serie A games this season
  • Sassuolo have lost four straight league matches, conceding 16 goals in that span

Roma are heavy favourites and clear the probability floor, but short odds mean the required edge over the market price isn't met.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Roma v Sassuolo →

Borussia Dortmund v SV ElversbergNo betGermany · Bundesliga · 17:30 EAT
Borussia Dortmund
1.29Draw
5.86SV Elversberg
7.89

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 72% / 16% / 12% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Dortmund are unbeaten in their last five matches
  • Dortmund played Real Betis in the Champions League three days earlier, a short turnaround

Dortmund's fair probability clears 55%, but at 1.29 the odds sit just below our 1.30 minimum, so the pick is excluded.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Borussia Dortmund v SV Elversberg →

AJ Auxerre v Paris FCLeanFrance · Ligue 1 · 21:00 EAT
AJ Auxerre
4.05Draw
3.63Paris FC
1.65

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 22% / 24% / 54% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Auxerre conceded 5 goals in their last match and have several players injured or suspended
  • Paris FC have been the more consistent side in form this season

Paris FC are favoured away from home and close to our threshold, but don't clear the required edge over the market price.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: AJ Auxerre v Paris FC →

Osasuna v Athletic ClubNo betSpain · LaLiga · 20:30 EAT
Osasuna
3.25Draw
3.25Athletic Club
2.20

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 29% / 29% / 42% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Athletic won 2-1 away at Real Sociedad on 1 November
  • Osasuna have kept games under 2.5 goals in all 5 home matches this season

Athletic are favoured but fair probability (~42%) is well short of our 55% threshold.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Osasuna v Athletic Club →

← Fri 6 Nov

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