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Picks for Monday 2 November 2026 · Nairobi time

← Today’s picks

Monday 2 November 2026

Result: 1 of 1 slips won.

Leo single

1 selection · first kickoff 20:30 EATAI pick

Total odds1.48
SportyBet booking codeWon
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  1. Italy · Serie A · 20:30 EAT
    Sassuolo v Fiorentina2-4
    Double chanceFiorentina or Draw
    AI 72% · odds imply 68%+4 edge

    Sassuolo have conceded 22 goals in 9 games (3rd-worst in Serie A) and are missing 5 players (4 injured, Thorstvedt suspended); Fiorentina won 3 of last 5.

    1.48Won
KSh 100 stake returns KSh 148 if it wins

Sassuolo's leaky defence and depleted squad make Fiorentina avoiding defeat better value than the price implies.

The matches we studied that day

The odds as they stood, what they imply once the bookmaker’s margin is taken out, and why each match was backed or skipped.

Newcastle v EvertonNo betEngland · Premier League · 23:00 EAT
Newcastle
2.35Draw
3.75Everton
3.05

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 42% / 26% / 32% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Newcastle missing Jaouen (hamstring) and Livramento (knee); Miley, Osula, Fernandez-Pardo are doubts
  • Everton have no fresh injuries and expect Branthwaite back from concussion

Newcastle's injury list is notable but double-chance prices quoted were too inconsistent across books to clear our edge threshold.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Newcastle v Everton →

Sassuolo v FiorentinaValue pickItaly · Serie A · 20:30 EAT
Sassuolo
2.94Draw
3.78Fiorentina
2.43

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 33% / 26% / 41% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Sassuolo have conceded 22 goals in 9 Serie A games, a bottom-three defensive record
  • Sassuolo missing Boloca, Koné, Leysen, Paz plus suspended Thorstvedt
  • Fiorentina have won 3 of their last 5 league games
  • Fiorentina-or-draw double chance priced near 1.48

Sassuolo's leaky defence and five absentees push Fiorentina/draw value above the vig-adjusted market price.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Sassuolo v Fiorentina →

Atalanta v ParmaLeanItaly · Serie A · 22:45 EAT
Atalanta
1.54Draw
4.70Parma
6.85

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 64% / 21% / 15% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Atalanta missing three centre-backs (Hien, Kossounou, Kolasinac) plus Raspadori and Scamacca
  • Parma are second-bottom with 5 points from 9 games and missing suspended top scorer Pellegrino

Atalanta are heavy favourites but their own defensive injury crisis means fair value already matches the market price, leaving no edge.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Atalanta v Parma →

Lorient v BrestNo betFrance · Ligue 1 · 22:45 EAT
Lorient
2.45Draw
3.25Brest
3.10

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 39% / 30% / 31% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Breton derby with no standout team-news edge for either side

Fair probabilities sit close to an even split; nothing clears the 55% bar.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Lorient v Brest →

Deportivo La Coruna v OsasunaNo betSpain · LaLiga · 23:00 EAT
Deportivo La Coruna
2.28Draw
3.45Osasuna
3.49

Strip the bookmaker margin out and those odds make it 43% / 29% / 28% for home win, draw and away win.

  • Deportivo are modest home favourites in a tight fixture

No side reaches the 55% fair-probability threshold required for a pick.

Call it — who wins?

Full write-up: Deportivo La Coruna v Osasuna →

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